Last fall James Shore published an article titled The Decline & Fall of Agile. In reading it, I couldn’t help thinking of the Gartner Hype Cycle, and whether or not we were coming down from the Peak of Inflated Expectations in the Agile sector. While the Trough of Disillusionment is a rough dose of reality, it isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Agile Evolution.
I’m even more convinced of this having read through Alistair Cockburn’s Agile 2009 Presentation. It seems as though Agile is back on an upswing in both usage and popularity, perhaps even scaling the Slope of Enlightenment. The overall tone of Agile conferences has shifted as well, and the questions aren’t so much dogmatic as they are practical. Even a healthy portion of Lean and Kanban are making it into the discussions.
So my question to you Agilists is this:
“Where do you think Agile is in the Gartner Hype Cycle?”
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#1 by Udayan Banerjee on September 12, 2009 - 7:11 am
You have missed out one stage – “Sliding Into the Trough”. I think agile is in that stage.
#2 by Udayan Banerjee on September 12, 2009 - 7:14 am
See this – http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?id=1087912
#3 by Jeremy Bishop on August 14, 2011 - 2:13 am
I can’t open the link.. do you other link by the way?
Jeremy Bishop
info@massage2motivate.com.au
#4 by Gunter on September 12, 2009 - 9:06 am
Hi David
Very interesting topic.
When discussing the maturity and adoption degree of Agile I use Geoffrey Moore’s Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The conclusion is that Agile has Entered the Bowling Alley (so has definitely Crossed the Chasm).
In 2008 I added a comparison with Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Application Development, which puts Agile in the Trough of Disillusionment and predicts a period of 5-10 years before mainstream adoption.
However, having studied and compared both models I am convinced that Agile is -at least- on its way to the Slope of Enlightenment.
Other objections I have with Gartner are:
* Agile is primarily the common denominator of a number of methods and is as such not one defined method.
* A complete Agile approach covers a number of practices and disciplines that Gartner separates (e.g. various testing levels).
* My intuition and daily experience contradict the 5-10y expectation.
(I have more info and some pictures to illustrate this, so I’ve made a little blog note myself on the subject at http://ullizee.wordpress.com/2009/09/12/the-adoption-of-agile-talc-vs-hype-cycle/)
Regards,
Gunther
#5 by David Bland on September 12, 2009 - 6:48 pm
I do believe that Scrum is ahead of XP on this chart, although I didn’t go to that level of detail.
#6 by Van Luu on September 13, 2009 - 8:26 pm
One premise of Agile itself is the acknowledgment of the existence of things we, as a team or as individuals, don’t know, as well as that the uncertainty as to whether all members in a team understand things the same way.
The second premise is that some projects can’t simply wait util all the unknowns are resolved before the team starts doing things.
Therefore, Agile is really a collection of processes and methods or principles that oriented toward self-enlightenment, right from the start to finish.
#7 by Bob Marshall on February 18, 2011 - 4:25 pm
I don’t believe the Hype Cycle applies, because Agile is not a technology, but rather requires a shift in mindset for it to become a viable, long-term and non-trivially beneficial approach.
- Bob
#8 by Mark on April 22, 2011 - 3:58 pm
I’m afraid I’d have to agree with a couple of the posters above. I don’t really think that Agile fits in to any one place in the Gartner cycle. It is certainly not until after the peak of inflated expectations though.
#9 by Kylie K on August 5, 2011 - 11:13 am
I learn something new everyday!
#10 by Arialdo Martini (@arialdomartini) on January 3, 2012 - 1:10 pm
“Where do you think #Agile is in the Gartner Hype Cycle?” http://t.co/HzMJAGu9 http://t.co/rJpucUzz